By DJ Pangburn Friday, February 04, 2011
The Telegraph is reporting that WikiLeaks documents suggest the Egyptian revolution was encouraged by a U.S. government that was still publicly propping up Mubarak’s regime. Is there truth in the suggestion?
The Telegraph article makes the assertion that the U.S. government is fully behind the Egyptian revolution and that the WikiLeaks documents prove it.
It wouldn’t be particularly surprising if the U.S. government or the CIA were meddling in Egypt, but it would be rather curious in light of the fact the U.S. government spends about $1.5 billion annually on Mubarak’s regime, propping him up for 30 years, thereby creating somewhat of a peaceful buffer in the Middle East for our protectorate Israel.
The WikiLeaks documents reveal a secret U.S. communique from the Embassy in Cairo to Washington in 2008, in which an anonymous Egyptian dissident is discussed relative to his participation in the April 6th Youth Movement of that year.
Would it not be counter-intuitive for the U.S. government to keep funding Mubarak while they secretly explore options of deposing the Egyptian dictator? If not, what does the U.S. stand to gain if it loses an ally in its fight against Al Qaeda and Muslim extremists?
While it might be baffling, this is not the first time our government has sought to bring down one of our puppet dictators (see: Manuel Noriega). Did the human and civil rights abuses become just too much for the U.S. to ignore?
According to the WikiLeaks documents, the anonymous dissident (call him ‘X’), attended the Alliance of Youth Movements Summit. The Alliance’s mission, as stated on their website is:
It should be noted that George W. Bush was President at the time of X’s interaction with the U.S. Embassy in Cairo and with “his subsequent meetings with USG officials, on Capitol Hill, and with think tanks.”
How does an Egyptian dissident have such high-level contact with officials at embassies, in Washington and with various un-named think tanks? Who spoke to X? Who are the think tanks? Why was X meeting with U.S. officials even as the U.S. was publicly supporting Mubarak’s regime?
After X returned from the Alliance summit, Egypt’s State Security (SSIS) detained him and confiscated his notes from the summit meeting and his ‘schedule for his congressional meetings.’ X was meeting with members of Congress? Something’s not right here.
The secret documents note that X recommended regime change because Mubarak would not “undertake significant reform.”
The following sentence is the most telling, however, with the Embassy officials stating, “He alleged that several opposition parties and movements have accepted an unwritten plan for democratic transition by 2011; we are doubtful of this claim.”
The notes go on to say, “April 6′s stated goal of replacing the current regime with a parliamentary democracy prior to the 2011 presidential elections is highly unrealistic, and is not supported by the mainstream opposition.”
So, the U.S. government is courting X but doesn’t believe that a democratic transition could be pulled off in 2011.
Fast forward approximately two years and this a very real possibility in Egypt. Which is more probable: X and other dissidents went ahead without U.S. government support in the January uprising, or the U.S. government has always been involved? Maybe U.S. officials changed their tune after the initial doubt highlighted in this document.
One of the more interesting comments made by X is paraphrased in the secret document:
The Telegraph is reporting that WikiLeaks documents suggest the Egyptian revolution was encouraged by a U.S. government that was still publicly propping up Mubarak’s regime. Is there truth in the suggestion?
The Telegraph article makes the assertion that the U.S. government is fully behind the Egyptian revolution and that the WikiLeaks documents prove it.
It wouldn’t be particularly surprising if the U.S. government or the CIA were meddling in Egypt, but it would be rather curious in light of the fact the U.S. government spends about $1.5 billion annually on Mubarak’s regime, propping him up for 30 years, thereby creating somewhat of a peaceful buffer in the Middle East for our protectorate Israel.
The WikiLeaks documents reveal a secret U.S. communique from the Embassy in Cairo to Washington in 2008, in which an anonymous Egyptian dissident is discussed relative to his participation in the April 6th Youth Movement of that year.
Would it not be counter-intuitive for the U.S. government to keep funding Mubarak while they secretly explore options of deposing the Egyptian dictator? If not, what does the U.S. stand to gain if it loses an ally in its fight against Al Qaeda and Muslim extremists?
While it might be baffling, this is not the first time our government has sought to bring down one of our puppet dictators (see: Manuel Noriega). Did the human and civil rights abuses become just too much for the U.S. to ignore?
According to the WikiLeaks documents, the anonymous dissident (call him ‘X’), attended the Alliance of Youth Movements Summit. The Alliance’s mission, as stated on their website is:
- “Movements.org is a not-for-profit organization dedicated to helping grassroots activists to build their capacity and make a greater impact on the world. Through the use of new technologies, grassroots activists have more capacity than ever to make change in their communities. Yet wired social movements continue to grapple with the challenges of scaling and sustaining themselves over time.”
It should be noted that George W. Bush was President at the time of X’s interaction with the U.S. Embassy in Cairo and with “his subsequent meetings with USG officials, on Capitol Hill, and with think tanks.”
How does an Egyptian dissident have such high-level contact with officials at embassies, in Washington and with various un-named think tanks? Who spoke to X? Who are the think tanks? Why was X meeting with U.S. officials even as the U.S. was publicly supporting Mubarak’s regime?
After X returned from the Alliance summit, Egypt’s State Security (SSIS) detained him and confiscated his notes from the summit meeting and his ‘schedule for his congressional meetings.’ X was meeting with members of Congress? Something’s not right here.
The secret documents note that X recommended regime change because Mubarak would not “undertake significant reform.”
The following sentence is the most telling, however, with the Embassy officials stating, “He alleged that several opposition parties and movements have accepted an unwritten plan for democratic transition by 2011; we are doubtful of this claim.”
The notes go on to say, “April 6′s stated goal of replacing the current regime with a parliamentary democracy prior to the 2011 presidential elections is highly unrealistic, and is not supported by the mainstream opposition.”
So, the U.S. government is courting X but doesn’t believe that a democratic transition could be pulled off in 2011.
Fast forward approximately two years and this a very real possibility in Egypt. Which is more probable: X and other dissidents went ahead without U.S. government support in the January uprising, or the U.S. government has always been involved? Maybe U.S. officials changed their tune after the initial doubt highlighted in this document.
One of the more interesting comments made by X is paraphrased in the secret document:
- “[X] asserted that Mubarak derives his legitimacy from U.S. support, and therefore charged the U.S. with ‘being responsible’ for Mubarak’s ‘crimes.’”
X: calling it like it is.
But, roughly two years passed between the date of this secret document detailing X’s thoughts on an Egyptian democratic revolution and this year’s January uprising. Did U.S. eventually support dissidents like X?
A recent televised report on Al Jazeera had youth activists claiming U.S. support was irrelevant.
This isn’t proof of U.S. involvement as the Telegraph suggests, but it certainly makes one wonder if they’ve been behind the scenes manipulating events.
-----
But, roughly two years passed between the date of this secret document detailing X’s thoughts on an Egyptian democratic revolution and this year’s January uprising. Did U.S. eventually support dissidents like X?
A recent televised report on Al Jazeera had youth activists claiming U.S. support was irrelevant.
This isn’t proof of U.S. involvement as the Telegraph suggests, but it certainly makes one wonder if they’ve been behind the scenes manipulating events.
-----
Egypt protests: secret US document discloses support for protesters
Here is the secret document sent from the US Embassy in Cairo to Washington disclosing the extent of American support for the protesters behind the Egypt uprising.
10:30PM GMT 28 Jan 2011
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 002572 SIPDIS FOR NEA/ELA, R, S/P
AND H NSC FOR PASCUAL AND KUTCHA-HELBLING E.O. 12958: DECL:
12/30/2028 TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, KDEM, EG SUBJECT: APRIL 6 ACTIVIST ON HIS
U.S. VISIT AND REGIME CHANGE IN EGYPT REF: A. CAIRO 2462 B.
CAIRO 2454 C. CAIRO 2431 Classified By: ECPO A/Mincouns
Catherine Hill-Herndon for reason 1.4 (d ). 1. (C) Summary and
comment: On December 23, April 6 activist xxxxxxxxxxxx expressed
satisfaction with his participation in the December 3-5 \"Alliance of
Youth Movements Summit,\" and with his subsequent meetings with USG
officials, on Capitol Hill, and with think tanks. He described how
State Security (SSIS) detained him at the Cairo airport upon his
return and confiscated his notes for his summit presentation calling
for democratic change in Egypt, and his schedule for his Congressional
meetings. xxxxxxxxxxxx contended that the GOE will never undertake
significant reform, and therefore, Egyptians need to replace the
current regime with a parliamentary democracy. He alleged that
several opposition parties and movements have accepted an unwritten
plan for democratic transition by 2011; we are doubtful of this claim.
xxxxxxxxxxxx said that although SSIS recently released two April 6
activists, it also arrested three additional group members. We have
pressed the MFA for the release of these April 6 activists. April 6's
stated goal of replacing the current regime with a parliamentary
democracy prior to the 2011 presidential elections is highly
unrealistic, and is not supported by the mainstream opposition. End
summary and comment. ---------------------------- Satisfaction with
the Summit ---------------------------- 2. (C) xxxxxxxxxxxx expressed
satisfaction with the December 3-5 \"Alliance of Youth Movements
Summit\" in New York, noting that he was able to meet activists from
other countries and outline his movement's goals for democratic change
in Egypt. He told us that the other activists at the summit were very
supportive, and that some even offered to hold public demonstrations
in support of Egyptian democracy in their countries, with xxxxxxxxxxxx
as an invited guest. xxxxxxxxxxxx said he discussed with the other
activists how April 6 members could more effectively evade harassment
and surveillance from SSIS with technical upgrades, such as
consistently alternating computer \"simcards.\" However, xxxxxxxxxxxx
lamented to us that because most April 6 members do not own computers,
this tactic would be impossible to implement. xxxxxxxxxxxx was
appreciative of the successful efforts by the Department and the
summit organizers to protect his identity at the summit, and told us
that his name was never mentioned publicly. ------------------- A
Cold Welcome Home ------------------- 3. (S) xxxxxxxxxxxx told us
that SSIS detained and searched him at the Cairo Airport on December
18 upon his return from the U.S. According to xxxxxxxxxxxx, SSIS
found and confiscated two documents in his luggage: notes for his
presentation at the summit that described April 6's demands for
democratic transition in Egypt, and a schedule of his Capitol Hill
meetings. xxxxxxxxxxxx described how the SSIS officer told him that
State Security is compiling a file on him, and that the officer's
superiors instructed him to file a report on xxxxxxxxxxxx most recent
activities. --------------------------------------------- ----------
Washington Meetings and April 6 Ideas for Regime Change
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 4. (C)
xxxxxxxxxxxx described his Washington appointments as positive, saying
that on the Hill he met with xxxxxxxxxxxx, a variety of House staff
members, including from the offices of xxxxxxxxxxxx and xxxxxxxxxxxx),
and with two Senate staffers. xxxxxxxxxxxx also noted that he met
with several think tank members. xxxxxxxxxxxx said that xxxxxxxxxxxx's
office invited him to speak at a late January Congressional hearing on
House Resolution 1303 regarding religious and political freedom in
Egypt. xxxxxxxxxxxx told us he is interested in attending, but
conceded he is unsure whether he will have the funds to make the trip.
He indicated to us that he has not been focusing on his work as a
\"fixer\" for journalists, due to his preoccupation with his U.S.
trip. 5. (C) xxxxxxxxxxxx described how he tried to convince his
Washington interlocutors that the USG should pressure the GOE to
implement significant reforms by threatening to reveal CAIRO 00002572
002 OF 002 information about GOE officials' alleged \"illegal\"
off-shore bank accounts. He hoped that the U.S. and the international
community would freeze these bank accounts, like the accounts of
Zimbabwean President Mugabe's confidantes. xxxxxxxxxxxx said he wants
to convince the USG that Mubarak is worse than Mugabe and that the GOE
will never accept democratic reform. xxxxxxxxxxxx asserted that
Mubarak derives his legitimacy from U.S. support, and therefore
charged the U.S. with \"being responsible\" for Mubarak's \"crimes.\"
He accused NGOs working on political and economic reform of living in
a \"fantasy world,\" and not recognizing that Mubarak -- \"the head of
the snake\" -- must step aside to enable democracy to take root. 6.
(C) xxxxxxxxxxxx claimed that several opposition forces -- including
the Wafd, Nasserite, Karama and Tagammu parties, and the Muslim
Brotherhood, Kifaya, and Revolutionary Socialist movements -- have
agreed to support an unwritten plan for a transition to a
parliamentary democracy, involving a weakened presidency and an
empowered prime minister and parliament, before the scheduled 2011
presidential elections (ref C). According to xxxxxxxxxxxx, the
opposition is interested in receiving support from the army and the
police for a transitional government prior to the 2011 elections.
xxxxxxxxxxxx asserted that this plan is so sensitive it cannot be
written down. (Comment: We have no information to corroborate that
these parties and movements have agreed to the unrealistic plan
xxxxxxxxxxxx has outlined. Per ref C, xxxxxxxxxxxx previously told us
that this plan was publicly available on the internet. End comment.)
7. (C) xxxxxxxxxxxx said that the GOE has recently been cracking down
on the April 6 movement by arresting its members. xxxxxxxxxxxx noted
that although SSIS had released xxxxxxxxxxxx and xxxxxxxxxxxx \"in the
past few days,\" it had arrested three other members. (Note: On
December 14, we pressed the MFA for the release of xxxxxxxxxxxx and
xxxxxxxxxxxx, and on December 28 we asked the MFA for the GOE to
release the additional three activists. End note.) xxxxxxxxxxxx
conceded that April 6 has no feasible plans for future activities.
The group would like to call for another strike on April 6, 2009, but
realizes this would be \"impossible\" due to SSIS interference,
xxxxxxxxxxxx said. He lamented that the GOE has driven the group's
leadership underground, and that one of its leaders, xxxxxxxxxxxx, has
been in hiding for the past week. 8. (C) Comment: xxxxxxxxxxxx
offered no roadmap of concrete steps toward April 6's highly
unrealistic goal of replacing the current regime with a parliamentary
democracy prior to the 2011 presidential elections. Most opposition
parties and independent NGOs work toward achieving tangible,
incremental reform within the current political context, even if they
may be pessimistic about their chances of success. xxxxxxxxxxxx
wholesale rejection of such an approach places him outside this
mainstream of opposition politicians and activists.
SCOBEY02008-12-307386PGOV,PHUM,KDEM,EGAPRIL 6 ACTIVIST ON HIS U.S.
VISIT AND REGIME CHANGE IN EGYPT
Here is the secret document sent from the US Embassy in Cairo to Washington disclosing the extent of American support for the protesters behind the Egypt uprising.
10:30PM GMT 28 Jan 2011
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 002572 SIPDIS FOR NEA/ELA, R, S/P
AND H NSC FOR PASCUAL AND KUTCHA-HELBLING E.O. 12958: DECL:
12/30/2028 TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, KDEM, EG SUBJECT: APRIL 6 ACTIVIST ON HIS
U.S. VISIT AND REGIME CHANGE IN EGYPT REF: A. CAIRO 2462 B.
CAIRO 2454 C. CAIRO 2431 Classified By: ECPO A/Mincouns
Catherine Hill-Herndon for reason 1.4 (d ). 1. (C) Summary and
comment: On December 23, April 6 activist xxxxxxxxxxxx expressed
satisfaction with his participation in the December 3-5 \"Alliance of
Youth Movements Summit,\" and with his subsequent meetings with USG
officials, on Capitol Hill, and with think tanks. He described how
State Security (SSIS) detained him at the Cairo airport upon his
return and confiscated his notes for his summit presentation calling
for democratic change in Egypt, and his schedule for his Congressional
meetings. xxxxxxxxxxxx contended that the GOE will never undertake
significant reform, and therefore, Egyptians need to replace the
current regime with a parliamentary democracy. He alleged that
several opposition parties and movements have accepted an unwritten
plan for democratic transition by 2011; we are doubtful of this claim.
xxxxxxxxxxxx said that although SSIS recently released two April 6
activists, it also arrested three additional group members. We have
pressed the MFA for the release of these April 6 activists. April 6's
stated goal of replacing the current regime with a parliamentary
democracy prior to the 2011 presidential elections is highly
unrealistic, and is not supported by the mainstream opposition. End
summary and comment. ---------------------------- Satisfaction with
the Summit ---------------------------- 2. (C) xxxxxxxxxxxx expressed
satisfaction with the December 3-5 \"Alliance of Youth Movements
Summit\" in New York, noting that he was able to meet activists from
other countries and outline his movement's goals for democratic change
in Egypt. He told us that the other activists at the summit were very
supportive, and that some even offered to hold public demonstrations
in support of Egyptian democracy in their countries, with xxxxxxxxxxxx
as an invited guest. xxxxxxxxxxxx said he discussed with the other
activists how April 6 members could more effectively evade harassment
and surveillance from SSIS with technical upgrades, such as
consistently alternating computer \"simcards.\" However, xxxxxxxxxxxx
lamented to us that because most April 6 members do not own computers,
this tactic would be impossible to implement. xxxxxxxxxxxx was
appreciative of the successful efforts by the Department and the
summit organizers to protect his identity at the summit, and told us
that his name was never mentioned publicly. ------------------- A
Cold Welcome Home ------------------- 3. (S) xxxxxxxxxxxx told us
that SSIS detained and searched him at the Cairo Airport on December
18 upon his return from the U.S. According to xxxxxxxxxxxx, SSIS
found and confiscated two documents in his luggage: notes for his
presentation at the summit that described April 6's demands for
democratic transition in Egypt, and a schedule of his Capitol Hill
meetings. xxxxxxxxxxxx described how the SSIS officer told him that
State Security is compiling a file on him, and that the officer's
superiors instructed him to file a report on xxxxxxxxxxxx most recent
activities. --------------------------------------------- ----------
Washington Meetings and April 6 Ideas for Regime Change
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 4. (C)
xxxxxxxxxxxx described his Washington appointments as positive, saying
that on the Hill he met with xxxxxxxxxxxx, a variety of House staff
members, including from the offices of xxxxxxxxxxxx and xxxxxxxxxxxx),
and with two Senate staffers. xxxxxxxxxxxx also noted that he met
with several think tank members. xxxxxxxxxxxx said that xxxxxxxxxxxx's
office invited him to speak at a late January Congressional hearing on
House Resolution 1303 regarding religious and political freedom in
Egypt. xxxxxxxxxxxx told us he is interested in attending, but
conceded he is unsure whether he will have the funds to make the trip.
He indicated to us that he has not been focusing on his work as a
\"fixer\" for journalists, due to his preoccupation with his U.S.
trip. 5. (C) xxxxxxxxxxxx described how he tried to convince his
Washington interlocutors that the USG should pressure the GOE to
implement significant reforms by threatening to reveal CAIRO 00002572
002 OF 002 information about GOE officials' alleged \"illegal\"
off-shore bank accounts. He hoped that the U.S. and the international
community would freeze these bank accounts, like the accounts of
Zimbabwean President Mugabe's confidantes. xxxxxxxxxxxx said he wants
to convince the USG that Mubarak is worse than Mugabe and that the GOE
will never accept democratic reform. xxxxxxxxxxxx asserted that
Mubarak derives his legitimacy from U.S. support, and therefore
charged the U.S. with \"being responsible\" for Mubarak's \"crimes.\"
He accused NGOs working on political and economic reform of living in
a \"fantasy world,\" and not recognizing that Mubarak -- \"the head of
the snake\" -- must step aside to enable democracy to take root. 6.
(C) xxxxxxxxxxxx claimed that several opposition forces -- including
the Wafd, Nasserite, Karama and Tagammu parties, and the Muslim
Brotherhood, Kifaya, and Revolutionary Socialist movements -- have
agreed to support an unwritten plan for a transition to a
parliamentary democracy, involving a weakened presidency and an
empowered prime minister and parliament, before the scheduled 2011
presidential elections (ref C). According to xxxxxxxxxxxx, the
opposition is interested in receiving support from the army and the
police for a transitional government prior to the 2011 elections.
xxxxxxxxxxxx asserted that this plan is so sensitive it cannot be
written down. (Comment: We have no information to corroborate that
these parties and movements have agreed to the unrealistic plan
xxxxxxxxxxxx has outlined. Per ref C, xxxxxxxxxxxx previously told us
that this plan was publicly available on the internet. End comment.)
7. (C) xxxxxxxxxxxx said that the GOE has recently been cracking down
on the April 6 movement by arresting its members. xxxxxxxxxxxx noted
that although SSIS had released xxxxxxxxxxxx and xxxxxxxxxxxx \"in the
past few days,\" it had arrested three other members. (Note: On
December 14, we pressed the MFA for the release of xxxxxxxxxxxx and
xxxxxxxxxxxx, and on December 28 we asked the MFA for the GOE to
release the additional three activists. End note.) xxxxxxxxxxxx
conceded that April 6 has no feasible plans for future activities.
The group would like to call for another strike on April 6, 2009, but
realizes this would be \"impossible\" due to SSIS interference,
xxxxxxxxxxxx said. He lamented that the GOE has driven the group's
leadership underground, and that one of its leaders, xxxxxxxxxxxx, has
been in hiding for the past week. 8. (C) Comment: xxxxxxxxxxxx
offered no roadmap of concrete steps toward April 6's highly
unrealistic goal of replacing the current regime with a parliamentary
democracy prior to the 2011 presidential elections. Most opposition
parties and independent NGOs work toward achieving tangible,
incremental reform within the current political context, even if they
may be pessimistic about their chances of success. xxxxxxxxxxxx
wholesale rejection of such an approach places him outside this
mainstream of opposition politicians and activists.
SCOBEY02008-12-307386PGOV,PHUM,KDEM,EGAPRIL 6 ACTIVIST ON HIS U.S.
VISIT AND REGIME CHANGE IN EGYPT
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